What Bets Should I Take Today

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This actually started out on the thread that should not be named, and I felt that further discussion on this topic should be moved to its own thread.

Okay, it has been shown that the bet with the lowest HA is the DP w odds, but since most of us prefer to play the 'right' side, the second best bet becomes the PL w odds.
Now, given that I am not inclined to just sit there and wait for that point to be decided, I would assume that my next best play is to make a Come bet and take the odds, which provides the same HA as the PL.
I now have 2 bets working, but again, I am now bored, so I place a 3rd come bet with odds. Most books I have read indicate that one PL bet and 2 come bets are about as high as you should go, after that you get diminishing returns. Is there math to support that limit of 2 come bets? Or, does the reason have more to do with the extreme volatility that is introduced with so many come bets in play, and the massive loss from the 7 out?

I have recently been playing to establish 3 come bets. My thinking is that with the PL and 3 come bets I have an average of 16 rolls that win vs 6 that lose. There are two very subjective reasons I even considered this: 1) the number of times I established 2 come bets, and the shooter had a long roll but never hit the points I was on; with 3 come bets I cover more than half the possible 'good' rolls. 2) the frequency of long rolls I observed when playing the don't, and getting my bets wiped out.
It hurts when that 7 rolls before any of the numbers hit, but it seems rare that I actually establish the four points without repeats and then 7 out before any of the numbers have hit. Somewhere I tried to calculate the probability for this - maybe I'll track that down tomorrow. I feel like I have had more winning sessions playing this way, but this is a very subjective feeling and is not based on a very large number of sessions. I may have just been lucky!!
The volatility definitely seems higher, but I limit my initial stake so that I don't lose big (to me) on any given session, but if I happen to hit even a moderately long roll I come out ahead. I have not yet encountered the inevitable streak of consecutive losing sessions that will make me wonder what the heck I was thinking.
All those come bets are subject to the same 1.4% HA, so in the long run, it does not matter how many come bets are made. So far I have been happy and comfortable with the +/- effect on my bankroll.
edit: Thread title should be 'How Many Come Bets are Too Many' -- my English teachers are cringing. :)seattledice,
Thanks for creating the new thread.
Here is my thinking on the issue (for simplicity sake Come bets means PL and/or Come):
The total amount one is willing to put into play is the biggest factor. Let's assume $100 is the bet limit. Are you better off with 2 Come bets with 40 odds each, or 5 come bets with 10 odds?
As I understand it, the HA is 1.41% for the Come bet. When you add odds to the bet, you effectively lower the HA a bit. So 5 come bets has a higher HA than 2 come bets with higher odds. However, I would think you have a better chance of losing less with the 5 come bets, than with the 2, since you have more numbers in play.
If we expand this to Come vs Place bets, I think an overlooked factor is the comp factor. Odds bets are monies at risk to a 7 out, but, you get no comp credit for that bet, since there is no HA. On a 3-4-5x table, a PL bet with full odds pays the same amount as a place bet. Yes, the HA is higher on the place bet, due to the loss of the come out roll advantage. But the comps that are available for making Place/Buy bets can add up quite nicely, and thus should be factored in to get the true EV.
So now the decision is 1 PL bet, plus x number of Come bets, or Place bets instead of, or in conjunction with, Come bets
Gordy

My MO is playing $10-25 with 5x on the Pass Line and then $10 Coming with Full Odds (5x) every roll. It can be very frustrating to get the 'Bases Loaded' and then 7 out, but I have had nice long streaks of just getting paid on every roll (except 2,3,12) and raking in the chips. Usually I place the 6/8 for $30 as well, then if it hits, that pays for the Odds and the next Come. A lot of action, a low HA, and a lot of fun for me. I don't like to stop betting the Come, because then I end up with uncovered numbers.

A Vegas friend, who is as close as you can get to a 'professional' dice player (tongue-in-cheek, of course; I know they don't exist), plays this way. He always chides me for putting out one or two come bets per roll. He explained it once; something about having to hit too many numbers to get back to even my way. I didn't really understand the math behind it. Maybe someone here does?I would tend to agree about the risk. A come bet with odds is as good as the pass line with odds. People get hung up with the fact that the come bet comes after the come out roll and you are apt to lose more this way. But just like the pass bet, you have an 11.111% on the come bet when it is placed.
Many are superstitious about come bets and even pass line bet as you have to hit the same number twice to win.
For those on a limited bankroll, you have to be careful with come bets and odds because you can easily put lots of money out there.
In the end, 'too' many come bets is a function of your tolerance to volatility. If you can handle putting up continuous come bets with max odds ($280 loss at a $10 3-4-5 table), then go for it.
For myself, my volatility at a table is limited to about 6 times the minimum which limits me with two come bets with double odds or a pass line bet with triple odds and a 6 - 8 to place. How I play is based on my mood. I know that the HA on my bet is at the most 1.52% and I am comfortable with that.It seems to me that there are several factors to consider. The first, and probably most important, is how much money are you willing to risk? Obviously, the more you bet the more you can lose if you have bad luck, regardless of where the money is bet.

Secondly, consider the 'tax' that you are going to play on your bets. The come bet costs 1.41% of the bet, just like the passline. Placing the 6/8 costs 1.52%, placing the 5/9 costs 4.0%, buy it may be cheaper to buy those, depending on bet level and casinos rules, buying the 4/10 costs 4.76%, or substantially less, here again depending on the bet level and casino rules. OTOH, money you bet on odds bets behind your pass/come bets is not taxed, although it also does not count for comps purposes. So, from a purely expected-loss point of view, the more money you bet on odds bets, the lower the expected loss.
Third, what about volatility? Obviously, the more you bet the more volatility, but different bets have different degrees of variance, the flat part of the pass and come having the least variance (standard deviation almost exactly equal to the bet amount), while place and buy bets have more and odds bets slightly more again. Here:
bet SD as % of bet
pass/come 99.9%
place 6/8 107.9%
place 5/9 117.6%
buy 4/10 139.1%
odds 6/8 109.5%
odds 5/9 122.5%
odds 4/10 141.4%

odds avg. 122.5%
So, if you want volatility, you get by far the most 'bang for your buck' with odds bets, which have the highest variance at no cost. Of course, volatility works both ways, so you can get hammered more, but really not much more than with place bets.
Fourth, how much 'action' do you want, not in terms of total money bet, but in terms of having lots of numbers covered, so you get more bets resolved. It can be very frustrating to be on the pass line with 5X or 10X odds and have a shooter roll every point number except THE point, especially when you are the shooter, and you're making money for everybody at the table except yourself. Of course, there's the opposite situation where you make your point, winning the flat and the odds, while the place bettors get nothing. It a matter of patterns; the pass/odds bettor is chasing a pattern of making points, not caring how many others numbers are thrown; the '$nn inside' or '$nn across' bettors are chasing a pattern of lots of point numbers rolled before a seven. They require maybe 4 hits before the seven in order to pocket a win for that shooter. If you have the inside numbers covered, here are the probabilities of different numbers of hits, assuming winning bets are replaced:
0 hits .25 cum
1 hit .1875 .4375
2 hits .1406 .5781
3 hits .1055 .6836
4 hits .0791

5 hits .0593
6 hits .0445
etc., etc.
So, if you need 4 hits to be ahead, almost 70% of the time that's not going to happen.
Another way to get more numbers covered is to make come bets, and you can also take odds on those bets for more 'free variance'. You can make a come bet on every non-comeout roll. People think you can quickly cover all the numbers that way, but it's not so, because you have 1/3 of come bets resolved on the first roll. Then, you may have a come bet go to the six, you make another come bet and the six shows. You win the first one and still have the six covered, but not an additional number. I ran a quick simulation with a $10 pass and $10 come bet on every non-comeout roll. The number of come bets resolved was only 2.39 times the number of passline decisions. Of course, that means less money bet than placing all the inside numbers, and less expected loss, but also less 'action'.
If you make come bets, then the question comes up of whether to 'work' your odds on the passline comeout roll. It's revenue-neutral, of course, in terms of expectation, but if you want 'action' and variance, then you get less of it if you don't have them working. Of course, the dealers will love you. >:-) Actually, one mark of a good dealer, in my view, is the ability to 'absorb' a player's (or multiple players') strategy and not have to be reminded all the time. I used to tell the dealers, 'My come odds ALWAYS work', and I'd expect him/her to say, 'You got it!', and then put that 'On' button on my odds every time.
Let's compare a $10 come bet, taking double odds, to a $20 buy 4, $1 vig collected only on a win:
$10 come $20 buy 4
avg. bet: $23.33 $20
ev -$.14 -$1
SD $28.57 $27.81
For 60 bets:
ev -$8.48 -$20
SD $221 $215
The buy 4 resolves at a somewhat slower rate, 4.0 rolls to 3.375, on average.
Many people overlook the comeout roll when comparing come bets to place bets.
If you can't wait to get your money out there on lots of numbers, the place bets allow you to do that, but you pay for it in expected loss.
I used to play pass w/two come bets, taking whatever odds I felt I could afford, but I stopped, for two reasons:

ALAN HARRIS has cashed three straight and five of seven nights on the college hoops hardwood, including a Game of the Year win on Saturday. Harris has a 7-Unit College Basketball Total (9 p.m.) as he looks to get the money for the fourth night in a row. Click BUY NOW below and jump on board.

JASON SHARPE is off to a personal-best start to this hockey season and is up over +5,000 already. He's back on Tuesday with a 7-Unit NHL Play and he has gone 7-3 on his 7-Unit picks on the ice. Sharpe has gone 15-6 on his last 21 plays rated 5.0+ across all sports and you can get this one by clicking BUY NOW below. (ARUN SHIVA and SCOTT SPREITZER have a 7-Unit Play on the same side.)

RAPHAEL ESPARZA continues to be on an epic soccer run and has gone 14-3, +4,525 and his last 17 picks. Esparza has banked +12,750 over his last 150 picks and has a 6-Unit Soccer Play (3 p.m.) from the Champions League tonight. Click BUY NOW below and don't miss out.

DOC'S SPORTS SOCCER is heating up at the right time and is looking for a big day on the pitch on Tuesday as he's releasing a 7-Unit Soccer Play (3 p.m.). Doc has won four of his last six selections for +915 and believes this play is a hidden gem. Click BUY NOW below.

Existing members log in to buy now or if you are new set up a free account.

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This actually started out on the thread that should not be named, and I felt that further discussion on this topic should be moved to its own thread.

Okay, it has been shown that the bet with the lowest HA is the DP w odds, but since most of us prefer to play the 'right' side, the second best bet becomes the PL w odds.
Now, given that I am not inclined to just sit there and wait for that point to be decided, I would assume that my next best play is to make a Come bet and take the odds, which provides the same HA as the PL.
I now have 2 bets working, but again, I am now bored, so I place a 3rd come bet with odds. Most books I have read indicate that one PL bet and 2 come bets are about as high as you should go, after that you get diminishing returns. Is there math to support that limit of 2 come bets? Or, does the reason have more to do with the extreme volatility that is introduced with so many come bets in play, and the massive loss from the 7 out?

I have recently been playing to establish 3 come bets. My thinking is that with the PL and 3 come bets I have an average of 16 rolls that win vs 6 that lose. There are two very subjective reasons I even considered this: 1) the number of times I established 2 come bets, and the shooter had a long roll but never hit the points I was on; with 3 come bets I cover more than half the possible 'good' rolls. 2) the frequency of long rolls I observed when playing the don't, and getting my bets wiped out.
It hurts when that 7 rolls before any of the numbers hit, but it seems rare that I actually establish the four points without repeats and then 7 out before any of the numbers have hit. Somewhere I tried to calculate the probability for this - maybe I'll track that down tomorrow. I feel like I have had more winning sessions playing this way, but this is a very subjective feeling and is not based on a very large number of sessions. I may have just been lucky!!
The volatility definitely seems higher, but I limit my initial stake so that I don't lose big (to me) on any given session, but if I happen to hit even a moderately long roll I come out ahead. I have not yet encountered the inevitable streak of consecutive losing sessions that will make me wonder what the heck I was thinking.
All those come bets are subject to the same 1.4% HA, so in the long run, it does not matter how many come bets are made. So far I have been happy and comfortable with the +/- effect on my bankroll.
edit: Thread title should be 'How Many Come Bets are Too Many' -- my English teachers are cringing. :)seattledice,
Thanks for creating the new thread.
Here is my thinking on the issue (for simplicity sake Come bets means PL and/or Come):
The total amount one is willing to put into play is the biggest factor. Let's assume $100 is the bet limit. Are you better off with 2 Come bets with 40 odds each, or 5 come bets with 10 odds?
As I understand it, the HA is 1.41% for the Come bet. When you add odds to the bet, you effectively lower the HA a bit. So 5 come bets has a higher HA than 2 come bets with higher odds. However, I would think you have a better chance of losing less with the 5 come bets, than with the 2, since you have more numbers in play.
If we expand this to Come vs Place bets, I think an overlooked factor is the comp factor. Odds bets are monies at risk to a 7 out, but, you get no comp credit for that bet, since there is no HA. On a 3-4-5x table, a PL bet with full odds pays the same amount as a place bet. Yes, the HA is higher on the place bet, due to the loss of the come out roll advantage. But the comps that are available for making Place/Buy bets can add up quite nicely, and thus should be factored in to get the true EV.
So now the decision is 1 PL bet, plus x number of Come bets, or Place bets instead of, or in conjunction with, Come bets
Gordy

My MO is playing $10-25 with 5x on the Pass Line and then $10 Coming with Full Odds (5x) every roll. It can be very frustrating to get the 'Bases Loaded' and then 7 out, but I have had nice long streaks of just getting paid on every roll (except 2,3,12) and raking in the chips. Usually I place the 6/8 for $30 as well, then if it hits, that pays for the Odds and the next Come. A lot of action, a low HA, and a lot of fun for me. I don't like to stop betting the Come, because then I end up with uncovered numbers.

A Vegas friend, who is as close as you can get to a 'professional' dice player (tongue-in-cheek, of course; I know they don't exist), plays this way. He always chides me for putting out one or two come bets per roll. He explained it once; something about having to hit too many numbers to get back to even my way. I didn't really understand the math behind it. Maybe someone here does?I would tend to agree about the risk. A come bet with odds is as good as the pass line with odds. People get hung up with the fact that the come bet comes after the come out roll and you are apt to lose more this way. But just like the pass bet, you have an 11.111% on the come bet when it is placed.
Many are superstitious about come bets and even pass line bet as you have to hit the same number twice to win.
For those on a limited bankroll, you have to be careful with come bets and odds because you can easily put lots of money out there.
In the end, 'too' many come bets is a function of your tolerance to volatility. If you can handle putting up continuous come bets with max odds ($280 loss at a $10 3-4-5 table), then go for it.
For myself, my volatility at a table is limited to about 6 times the minimum which limits me with two come bets with double odds or a pass line bet with triple odds and a 6 - 8 to place. How I play is based on my mood. I know that the HA on my bet is at the most 1.52% and I am comfortable with that.It seems to me that there are several factors to consider. The first, and probably most important, is how much money are you willing to risk? Obviously, the more you bet the more you can lose if you have bad luck, regardless of where the money is bet.
Secondly, consider the 'tax' that you are going to play on your bets. The come bet costs 1.41% of the bet, just like the passline. Placing the 6/8 costs 1.52%, placing the 5/9 costs 4.0%, buy it may be cheaper to buy those, depending on bet level and casinos rules, buying the 4/10 costs 4.76%, or substantially less, here again depending on the bet level and casino rules. OTOH, money you bet on odds bets behind your pass/come bets is not taxed, although it also does not count for comps purposes. So, from a purely expected-loss point of view, the more money you bet on odds bets, the lower the expected loss.
Third, what about volatility? Obviously, the more you bet the more volatility, but different bets have different degrees of variance, the flat part of the pass and come having the least variance (standard deviation almost exactly equal to the bet amount), while place and buy bets have more and odds bets slightly more again. Here:
bet SD as % of bet
pass/come 99.9%
place 6/8 107.9%
place 5/9 117.6%
buy 4/10 139.1%
odds 6/8 109.5%
odds 5/9 122.5%
odds 4/10 141.4%
odds avg. 122.5%
So, if you want volatility, you get by far the most 'bang for your buck' with odds bets, which have the highest variance at no cost. Of course, volatility works both ways, so you can get hammered more, but really not much more than with place bets.
Fourth, how much 'action' do you want, not in terms of total money bet, but in terms of having lots of numbers covered, so you get more bets resolved. It can be very frustrating to be on the pass line with 5X or 10X odds and have a shooter roll every point number except THE point, especially when you are the shooter, and you're making money for everybody at the table except yourself. Of course, there's the opposite situation where you make your point, winning the flat and the odds, while the place bettors get nothing. It a matter of patterns; the pass/odds bettor is chasing a pattern of making points, not caring how many others numbers are thrown; the '$nn inside' or '$nn across' bettors are chasing a pattern of lots of point numbers rolled before a seven. They require maybe 4 hits before the seven in order to pocket a win for that shooter. If you have the inside numbers covered, here are the probabilities of different numbers of hits, assuming winning bets are replaced:
0 hits .25 cum
1 hit .1875 .4375
2 hits .1406 .5781
3 hits .1055 .6836
4 hits .0791
5 hits .0593
6 hits .0445
etc., etc.
So, if you need 4 hits to be ahead, almost 70% of the time that's not going to happen.
Another way to get more numbers covered is to make come bets, and you can also take odds on those bets for more 'free variance'. You can make a come bet on every non-comeout roll. People think you can quickly cover all the numbers that way, but it's not so, because you have 1/3 of come bets resolved on the first roll. Then, you may have a come bet go to the six, you make another come bet and the six shows. You win the first one and still have the six covered, but not an additional number. I ran a quick simulation with a $10 pass and $10 come bet on every non-comeout roll. The number of come bets resolved was only 2.39 times the number of passline decisions. Of course, that means less money bet than placing all the inside numbers, and less expected loss, but also less 'action'.
If you make come bets, then the question comes up of whether to 'work' your odds on the passline comeout roll. It's revenue-neutral, of course, in terms of expectation, but if you want 'action' and variance, then you get less of it if you don't have them working. Of course, the dealers will love you. >:-) Actually, one mark of a good dealer, in my view, is the ability to 'absorb' a player's (or multiple players') strategy and not have to be reminded all the time. I used to tell the dealers, 'My come odds ALWAYS work', and I'd expect him/her to say, 'You got it!', and then put that 'On' button on my odds every time.
Let's compare a $10 come bet, taking double odds, to a $20 buy 4, $1 vig collected only on a win:
$10 come $20 buy 4
avg. bet: $23.33 $20
ev -$.14 -$1
SD $28.57 $27.81
For 60 bets:
ev -$8.48 -$20
SD $221 $215
The buy 4 resolves at a somewhat slower rate, 4.0 rolls to 3.375, on average.
Many people overlook the comeout roll when comparing come bets to place bets.
If you can't wait to get your money out there on lots of numbers, the place bets allow you to do that, but you pay for it in expected loss.
I used to play pass w/two come bets, taking whatever odds I felt I could afford, but I stopped, for two reasons:
1) Casinos started allowing higher odds multiples than double (when I started playing some casinos offered only single odds), and I understood that I was paying 1.4% for the flat part of those come bets.
2) I didn't like the 'mixed feelings' I had on the passline comeout roll, when the seven would win the pass but lose any come points, including their odds. I decided I wanted to 'root' for the seven on the pass comeout and against it when there was a point, period.
So, how many come bets are too many? I would say, more than you can afford! Every player should decide for him/herself his/her own comfort level, preferably in the light of knowledge of the risks and advantages.
Cheers,
Alan Shank

Many are superstitious about come bets and even pass line bet as you have to hit the same number twice to win.

I Bet You

I have to call out your language here (but not your premise). You do not have to hit the same number twice. The first number only establishes the point. It has no effect on your bet (unless a natural or craps is rolled, but that is the same as the line bet). After that, the odds are whatever the odds against making the point is: 6-5, 3-2, or 2-1. The odds are not calculated based on hitting a certain number 'twice.'
Edit: goatcabin, great analysis. What is your bettting pattern now, just one pass line with max odds? Why not just have your odds turned off on the comeout roll, then you can 'root for the seven?' My dice-playing friend does this. He hates rolling the seven, though, because all his flat bets come down, and like you said, it's a lot of work to get those numbers up there.

Many are superstitious about come bets and even pass line bet as you have to hit the same number twice to win.

I have to call out your language here (but not your premise). You do not have to hit the same number twice. The first number only establishes the point. It has no effect on your bet (unless a natural or craps is rolled, but that is the same as the line bet). After that, the odds are whatever the odds against making the point is: 6-5, 3-2, or 2-1. The odds are not calculated based on hitting a certain number 'twice.'

Sure Bets Today

Agreed. I think my point is that there are some who believe that once a point has been rolled, the odds are heavily in the favor of rolling other numbers before that number again, because dice apparently have memory.

What Bets Should I Take Today